A game of ships and bargaining chips
by Maria Siow
But amid a loud chorus of criticism about how the US had displayed weakness by withdrawing the aircraft carrier from the exercise, victory is perhaps one of the last things on Beijing’s mind.
Rather, China is keeping an apprehensive eye on what it sees as a growing and more strident erosion of its own strategic military interest, and America’s continued efforts in encircling China.
The US said on Sunday that the USS George Washington aircraft carrier will not participate in the US-South Korean joint military exercise early next month.
The joint anti-submarine exercise was scheduled in the waters west of the Korean Peninsula in order to send “a message of deterrence against provocation by North Korea”.
The exercise will focus on anti-submarine warfare tactics, techniques and procedures. Even though the carrier will not be taking part, it will “operate in the waters around the Korean Peninsula in future exercises”.
Next month’s exercise comes on the heels of two earlier joint exercises. The first was held at the end of last month in the eastern waters, or the Sea of Japan, while the second took place last week in both the eastern waters and western waters, or the Yellow Sea.
Predictably, China expressed persistent and firm opposition to the foreign military presence in or around its coastal waters.
While the temporary backing-off of the USS George Washington might seem like a US reprieve from further “provoking” China, Chinese analysts see the move merely as a provisional bargaining chip in the ongoing rivalry that is characteristic of US-China relations.
Many say the high-level military manoeuvres are aimed at exerting pressure on China on issues ranging from US-China trade disputes to the Iranian nuclear standoff and the revaluation of the Chinese currency.
There is also the perception that regardless of whether North Korea was responsible for sinking the South Korean warship Cheonan, the US has emerged as the biggest beneficiary in the aftermath of the sinking.
Not only did allies Korea and Japan inch closer to the US, Washington has also reasserted its importance and superiority in the region, while sending an unmistakable signal to China that the US also has a strategic stake in the South China Sea.
To counter what many see as encroaching US influence or even “meddling”, many within China have called on its government to bring into play one of its strongest bargaining chips — the country’s massive hold on US treasury bonds amounting to about US$850 million (RM2.63 billion).
Several analysts have pointed out that getting rid of US treasury bonds would be more effective than any verbal warning. “By resorting to this golden card, we can deter and allow the US to have a taste of China’s big stick,” wrote analyst Yang Qiwei.
But essentially, Beijing has to shoulder a large part of the responsibility for the heightened military tensions in the region.
While China clearly has its domestic and strategic considerations for not taking a tougher stand on North Korea over the sinking of the Cheonan, the reticence has, for all intents and purposes, given Washington the excuse to make its military presence felt in the region - a move which, admittedly, is not unwelcomed by countries jittery about China’s growing economic and military influence.
Moreover, earlier this year, China decided — much to the surprise of global and regional watchers — that the South China Sea was a core sovereignty interest to be defended at all cost, much like Taiwan and Tibet.
Little wonder that US Defence Secretary Robert Gates recently said he had moved from being curious about what the Chinese are doing, to being concerned about what they are doing. Clearly, China has to make its strategic objectives more transparent, and be more willing to engage in related discussions in regional and multilateral forums.
There is also a need for China to better explain its basis for turning the South China Sea issue into a core interest, especially given the conflicting sovereignty claims by some countries in the region. The uncertainty is further fuelled by voices emanating from China that such a core interest might not have been approved as policy by the country’s top leadership.
For several years now, many in the region have expressed worry about whether China’s rise will be as peaceful as Beijing has said it would be.
If left unchecked, the greater Chinese assertiveness and its seemingly uncompromising rhetoric might not only raise concerns that this might be an indication of future behaviour, but also provide evidence that China is paying lip service to the idea of its peaceful rise. — Today
* The writer is the East Asia bureau chief at Channel NewsAsia.
Erin Wasson for Numero Magazine
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