‘Real time’ Malaysians are undecided
They wanted to get home. Instead they had to wait for the rain to withdraw and pass a cursory stare in turn at the withdrawn figure slumped in the corner. I did not look like I was particularly waiting for the rain.
They’ve all left now. The rain has since left, so now they can rue about the jam-packed roads heading home in the comforts of their locally assembled cars.
But I was waiting. I was waiting to read their faces. In Malaysia you are raised to believe you can tell people by their look, so I thought I’d give it a go. It helps political punditry when you can just tell just from people’s faces.
I could approximate that some were happy, most had sour faces and there were these two cute girls. But I could not tell whether they’d vote Barisan Nasional (BN) or Pakatan Rakyat (PR) in the coming general election.
Not sure if I was finding shelter from the rain anywhere else in Malaysia I would have been able to tell the voting patterns of the people there by the look they gave.
Which is why it perplexes me how experts summarise the Malaysian voters’ intent, and future intentions with arrogance. To me, we do not know where the electorate stand.
We are akin to the five blind men feeling one part of an elephant in a room. Having never felt, touched, heard, taught or obviously seen one before, they try to tell the true nature of an elephant.
That is political punditry in Malaysia. But you have to imagine 30 million blind people. Everyone is at best having a best guess. And yes, some people guess better than most.
Election 2008 is case in point.
It was the most exciting election in Malaysian history and people were genuinely surprised. In a nation where predictability was the norm, it shattered our simplistic template.
Up to 1965 and the expulsion of Singapore, the Alliance lived-off as the party of Independence. Election 1969 was charged with the energy of those wanting to affirm a parochial think and an adversary seeking a different outcome.
The violence that ensued was most regrettable, but it was not unexpected. Election 1999 was a referendum on real Malay leadership, after a season of antagonism.
But the events of 2008 did not suggest anything helter-skelter. It was expected to be just routine.
The energy of Reformasi had been doused, there were no firebrand leaders emerging and the controls put into place in 1969 have stayed in place with the exception of the Bersih and Hindraf rallies in late 2007.
My exchange with a foreign correspondent deep into the campaign encapsulates the general expectant mood in the country. Right after a press conference we compared crystal balls.
His prognosis — after covering much of the campaign trail — was 15 Parliamentary seats in total for the various opposition parties, with four a best case for PKR. (Most people in government, out of government, with jobs or not held similar estimates.)
I disagreed with him and my plus 80 was on the dot. But I was a party worker and it would be odd for me not to be optimistic for my side, so you can discount my correct guess as luck.
I’ll accept that rebuff.
The key observation, however, is almost everyone got it wrong.
BN, the parties that then became Pakatan Rakyat, the police, the military, the foreign correspondents and your respective teh tarik shop expert most likely.
What makes us think that three years later we now know what will happen with absolute certainty? It has been a chaotic period and none of us is close to knowing the cumulative intent of the Malaysian people.
The lack of credible polling between general elections and the absence of exit polling (sampling people who have just voted) during by-elections gives us scarce data.
Only the streaming process during by-elections — voting rooms based on age bands — gives us a look into age patterns. And in highly racially polarised areas (which are diminishing in the ever-growing mixed seats) — meaning almost everyone in the voting centre is of a race — perhaps some exact insight to race voting.
Every other speculation is approximating.
Let’s talk about the Malaysian creature.
For generations we have been trained to keep our own opinions to ourselves. This is the price of restraining people using all means possible — education, economy, culture and then the occasional police baton. To achieve political submission to the present administration, masked as national unity.
The tendency is to ask people to ignore their personal thoughts and then accept wholesale the state’s narrative of truth.
Cliché centre: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it/ Show gratitude, support those who build your schools and give you jobs/ Work within the system/ Don’t be a communist/ Moderation in everything.
Some will adopt religiously the “Borg” culture, many will disconnect but comply and a minority will adapt to thrive or to challenge the system.
Everyone learns to keep quiet about their real thoughts as they tiptoe through public life.
We are a land of secrets. When being truthful is not often rewarded, then being circumspect and casually misleading will not be uncommon.
Which is why the gross generalisation of what Malaysians think is unpalatable.
The over-pimped line that in 2008 people voted against BN, not for PR necessarily — protest votes supposedly.
That Malaysians never intended to give that many seats and states to PR.
That is contentious, but more so disrespectful to the voter.
But even if these are protest votes, then they were cast by fence-sitters. Those who are undecided.
That means the fence-sitter population is much larger than BN would care to admit. They may have issues with PR, but that does not mean their issues with BN are resolved.
Whether they are members of BN parties does not matter. Almost everyone was a member of the Soviet Union’s communist party, since it was the only party and being a member brings incentives compared to being a non-member and getting less or no incentives.
Loyalty tests are not meaningful when the whole field is laden with dead choices.
Broadly, there are principle objections to how BN runs the country. And as fewer and fewer countries worldwide look like BN-run Malaysia when it comes to democratic participation and voice, then less attractive will BN be.
Which brings us to present developments in the Arab world. I don’t want to over-exaggerate the events. I want to say that these countries and many other less progressive countries within their respective perceived walls of isolation have come to a tipping point.
The information revolution has made everyone on the planet transform, and given all corners of the world with electricity lines and mobile telephones paradigm leaps.
When TV3 launched their station in 1984, their first prime time offering on that Friday was the four-year-old pilot of Magnum PI. Which was seen as impressive back then.
Today you get your American Idol episode eight hours after its US screening, and you’d probably get it sooner if you are ten per cent more tech savvy than the dolt I am.
Our view of the theoretical good is more “real time” today.
That is our similarity with the Arabs, South America and many, many other places.
Just as we are slowly adjusting to accelerating processor speeds, foreign execs in our firms, nudity, Chinese made gadgets and Indian food seamlessly, our shock levels at an uncertain future is dropping.
If the new mantra is to be prepared for the unexpected in a highly globalised world — in jobs, business, product markets etc — then why would we not have been preparing ourselves for an uncertain political future decided not by who won, but how Malaysians thrive in that new reality?
Something that would subconsciously embolden the voter to fear less uncertainty.
That unlike the conventional think that Malaysia is on a fixed cycle, alternating between big and modest wins for BN, we inadvertently in 2008 set a course away from that downward spiral.
I don’t know for sure. But I am no less wrong than my detractors. I am no less right, in that count.
The only certainty is that the “real time” Malaysian is getting more real by the day.
| Praba Ganesan is here to build a country. He needs your help. More of the topics discussed & follow-on chats about them at prabaganesan.wordpress.com. You can also contact him at prabaganesan@hotmail.com. |
Comments