November rain for Najib?

SEPT 29 — The prime minister apparently has an affinity for November, more accurately this particular one, for being the 11th month in a year ending with 11.

It's not his birthday month, but the number 11 apparently recurs enough times — parents'/son's birthdates, pivotal moments etc — that it's his lucky number.

Unsurprisingly, the first half of 2011, using Najib's numerology preferences and need for his own national mandate, coupled with an expectation of a weaker economy in 2012, many pundits have been plugging away that November 11, 2011 (11-11-11) will be polling day.

These opinions have rescinded, and the revised pundit's schedule sees Najib facing his own party members first at their general assembly (December 1-3).

The desired prognosis: Having built broad support internally while skipping around the potential landmines, the prime minister then heads with his party in tow — dragging the rest of pack making up Barisan Nasional (BN) — to a successful general election in early 2012.

Successful or not at the assembly, the months of October and November will define Najib's prospects in a March general election scenario. Bad months will force a rethink and increase the likelihood of elections later in 2012.

This column is of the position that Najib Razak is likely to have one tricky November especially as his party goes into assembly mode.

October is a bit of breathing space, but he is likelier to use the time as he already has in the last few weeks to rebuild on his "Renaissance man" initiative.

After the slip-up with Bersih 2.0 rally in Kuala Lumpur, he has reorganised himself to get back on the reform leader saddle.

Starting with the legislative agenda to retire repressive elements in security laws, and then attending feverishly all the Merdeka (National) Day festivities with hip clothes and camera to help colour up his Facebook page, and then following on with his island cycling turn over the weekend.

Najib wants to be seen less distant especially to those below 30.

There will be more, for most of October. They will inundate Budget 2012, to be tabled on October 7.

Najib has the privilege of cherry picking what more he can offer to a Malaysian populace as an olive branch, to reaffirm his administration's desire to reform from within to meet the more modern elements Malaysians are expecting from their government.

These are the very Malaysians propping up the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) marginal seats across the country, not necessarily Umno seats in their heartland — smallish seats fending off mostly PAS and then PKR. Over there, the issues are direct economical benefits and culture.

Which is why by November the prime minister has to turn his eyes to the party. The lead-up to the Umno assembly is where his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin has a window of opportunity. To test Najib's Malay credentials on an Umno scale.

No Umno president can persist without being clear about a race hierarchy in Malaysia. The party's first president's insistence for desegregation led to his departure. Onn Jaafar has his portraits in all the proper corners of the party's convention centre in Kuala Lumpur despite having spent the larger portion of his party politics leading to his death outside Umno. The portraits celebrate as much as they act as a warning sign to all who seek to tinker with the party's race prioritisation.

In this regard, Muhyiddin, the deputy prime minister, has been crystal clear.

He is pro-business, but not an apologist for the long-standing rent-seeking behaviours. These things have gone on long enough to be cultural, and those not benefiting from it have already adjusted to it, so why worry over it seems to be the refrain from Muhyiddin.

He is the closest fit with the party's longest-serving president, Dr Mahathir Mohamad. This becomes more relevant since the influential Dr Mahathir has been between lukewarm and antagonistic towards both men who have succeeded him, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib. Dr Mahathir has yet to be critical of Muhyiddin, and whether that is an endorsement is left to be seen.

Which is why Najib's bigger threat is not from Pakatan Rakyat right now, but from within his party. This was inevitable when the decision was made to gain popularity at the party do before beating the general election drums.

Muhyiddin has to wait for the present public relations exercise to end, with the expected Budget to further lift Najib's ratings, for now.

It is important for Muhyiddin's sake that Najib does not come out of the party assembly galvanised and then propel BN to an electoral landslide in 2012. The double blow will both reduce Muhyiddin's party credentials and lead to speculation he will retire within the next cycle or face a viable contest for the deputy presidency. Every year as number two, his stocks depreciate.

So the battle lines are drawn. Najib has to not lose ground at the Umno assembly in two months' time, and then hit the 160 parliamentary seats goal in 2012. In that landslide scenario, winning back Penang and Selangor would be likely as moderate voters would have moved back to the Barisan Nasional.

Muhyiddin's best outcome on the other hand will be for Najib himself to be hit enough times that no progress is made through the 1 Malaysia branding at the party's assembly, and that a sluggish general election campaign period will yield the same 140 or less snagged in 2008 or less. In this lose-to-win stratagem, Muhyiddin's home state Johor, where his Pagoh seat is, must not concede too much ground to Pakatan Rakyat for his own sake.

This will posit Muhyiddin in prime position to displace Najib at the next party polls, as a whole round of "we need a stronger leader" — as it happened after Election 2008 for Abdullah — will ensue, prodding Najib to leave.   

Those are the respective best-case scenarios for both leaders, and the key battle line is managing Umno members' perceptions.

That is the battle line, and the battleground will be in November, intensifying by the week.

Najib's multilayered, multidimensional plans to win the new Malaysia, while keeping the Malay heartland, against the blunt instrument which is Muhyiddin, who does the tried and tested.

The execution should be straightforward. To keep chugging at Najib's policy overreach and outline how it is foreign to the larger Umno membership.

Images of the prime minister cycling for Chinese charities, and promising a somewhat end of the New Economic Policy (but not really), are just examples of what can be in the frontline of misinformation about the prime minister's efforts.

If Muhyiddin-ists in the party can force Najib to consider taking the "Malays come first, no matter what or how" pledge, then the dual play by the prime minister will stall.

But in this climate, just accepting to reconsider the reform game plan is defeat. It won't be seen as careful consideration, but rather as an admission of indecision.

The lack of conviction Najib often has will rise, and there will be various speakers baiting the prime minister if there is enough traction by the time the delegates arrive in Kuala Lumpur.

The most difficult part for the Najib camp is, there is no real play against Muhyiddin — who has so little to defend in the party, and therefore energy to exhaust to advance his own political ambitions. The Umno world is Muhyiddin's playfield.

Of course, Najib can shortcut the internal threats by going to polls within 2011 and suspend the Umno assembly.

He is most certain to retain parliamentary majority, with the prerogative to cull some dissenters from the candidates' list. 

The prime minister might fancy his strength in the party once he has managed a general election unscathed, with a reasonable majority.

Or Najib can still meet the Umno assembly in December, but not hold polls in early 2012. This way he may stomach some of the criticism, while navigating the assembly to unifying the party further and not have the added burden of mustering up the posse for an election.

This will force him to rely a little on a kinder economy, or at least for a more insulated Malaysian economy however the global outlook might materialise.

The permutations are boundless, and the prime minister is obviously looking for a magic 8-ball to end 2011 on a high note.

As lucky as Najib might think of November, this one is not going to be plain sailing.

* The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the columnist.

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