Yinglucks real challenge may be Thaksin
August 27, 2011
Yinglucks real challenge may be Thaksin
The Yingluck fever continues unabated. This week, Yingluck Shinawatra, the first female prime minister of Thailand, earned a spot on Forbes annual list of the Worlds Most Powerful Women.
Voted into office following Thailands general elections in July, she was ranked 59th on the list of 100 clout-wielding ladies, just ahead of supermodel Gisele Bundchen and author JK Rowling.
At home, she remains hugely popular. On August 23, she gave a confident performance when she delivered her governments policies ahead of a Parliamentary debate that may test whether she actually owns a sense of leadership and whether she can escape the long shadow of her self-exiled brother, former oremier Thaksin Shinawatra.
In her first policy address to lawmakers, Yingluck pledged that she would prioritise national 
She vowed to stabilise the economy and boost incomes, with policies ranging from corporate tax cuts to debt relief for farmers, village development funds and lower fuel prices policies primarily designed to benefit Puea Thais supporters in far-flung regions of Thailand.
But the most popular and controversial pledge has been to fix a daily minimum wage of 300 baht. Analysts warn that the governments populist programmes could have a ! devastat ing impact on the overall economy, spinning off inflation, budget deficits and public debt.
Immediately after her statement, members of the opposition questioned some of the policies. The Democrat Party criticised Yinglucks approach to resolving the conflict in the Thai south as being a replica of the Thaksin administrations hard-nosed policy towards Thai Muslims, which had generated an outpouring of resentment among southerners against the Thai state.
The Democrat Party also cast doubt on the Puea Thai-led governments loyalty to the much revered monarchy. It accused some Red Shirt members a few are serving in the current government of a continued anti-monarchy attitude, an allegation flatly denied by Yingluck.
Despite the oppositions provocation, the Yingluck government has a solid backing because of her partys overwhelming majority in Parliament. Former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva may have performed well as an adamant leader of the opposition but his party is suffering from a lack of direction. The Democrat Party is in urgent need of a revamp; it has never won an election since 1992.
Even so, Yinglucks path may not be as smooth as she wishes. The real challenges for her government may come from two main sources.
First, since Yingluck refused to give any ministerial posts to Red Shirt members for fear that this could upset her enemies in high places, her government could find itself in a difficult position as it deals with issues related to the Red Shirt movement. These members have already complained that they were used by the Puea Thai in the election campaign and have claimed that the party owed its victory to their unflagging support.
Frustration within the Red Shirt movement is becoming increasingly apparent. For example, core leaders are now urging the Yingluck government to seek justice for those who lost their lives in last years crackdowns; they want the security forces to be prosecuted for the deaths of their loved ones.
The other challenge stem! s from w ithin the Shinawatra family. Thaksin has embarked on his world tour. As of today, he is in Japan where he has visited provinces in Miyagi prefecture hit by the recent quake and tsunami. His globe-trotting has put the Yingluck government in jeopardy.
Thaksin, who is keen to act as de facto prime minister of Thailand, by visiting Japan has opened a door for the opposition to discredit Yingluck and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul, who happens to be Thaksins cousin. The Democrat Party has attempted to impeach Surapong for aiding a criminal in getting a visa to Japan. Yingluck and Surapong have denied requesting that Japan grant him an entry permit.
While Thaksin has reiterated that he does not intend to return home soon, his activities abroad have shown to what a great degree he remains a powerful player in Thai politics and that is not necessarily all good news for Yingluck. Today
* Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
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