Upbeat on Thailand

April 27, 2011

www.nst.com.my

Upbeat on Thailand

by W. Scott Thompson

THAILAND truly is a land of contradictions. Bangkok is by far the glitziest city in Southeast Asia and coming from the moon, one would surely consider it the capital of a very rich country. But on Monday at lunch in the Normandy Grill (coat and tie required) atop the best hotel in the world, the Oriental, some distinguished economists bemoaned the chances the kingdom had to equal Korea or at least Malaysia in per capita income.

Yet Thailand isnt doing badly for all the trouble it has had. It recovered quickly from the Asian financial crisis in 1997, which arguable it caused, and its growth continues respectably, as it has almost every year since World War 2 an argument for the inexorability of compounding when leaders let the bankers keep the country on a steady course.

But the army is now at maximum alert. Thai soldiers were killed on the Cambodian border, a conflict that has dragged on for more than half a century. Thailand was too blithe about its prospects in submitting the question of a temple, sitting on the border, and for which its historical claims seemed just, to the International Court, for arbitration.

Cambodia pulled a fast one by hiring Dean Acheson, former American secretary of state, to represent it who won for Phnom Penh. This is not one of the worlds irresolvable conflicts; but centuries of hostility make it a tough one. They are sparring over whether there should be mediation and some Indonesian-supplied peacekeepers. Cambodia says yes, Thailand says no. The real problem is that neither side wants to drop it. The consequence is the loss of vast tourist spending for both sides.

And there are almost daily dea! ths in t he south, though it is claimed that many rebels have turned in their guns. This one was solvable, but as Ive written here before, the exiled leader Thaksin Shinawatra deliberately withdrew the intermediary presence of the Democrat Party, his competition, from its southern stronghold and ever since its been bloody.

Everyone here is howling about the double standard of the Culture Ministry and the three girls arrested for stripping down a bit during the great water festival, Songkran.

Imagine! In Thailand of all places. Though this misses the point. The Thais think that anything goes if the doors are closed. Or rather, they dont bother to think about it, if the doors are closed. But Thai culture demands propriety in public. The Thais are the greatest sticklers for public propriety, despite Patpong road and all that. Most farang just dont get that.

So Thailand goes on its merry way; everyone in the capital is smiling, for one reason or the other. And I heard a very upbeat analysis, too.

A former and distinguished student of mine, who has held posts as finance and foreign minister, Surakiart Sathirithai, is optimistic. Hes also the first Thai statesman Ive heard talking with sincerity about reconciliation, and he has believable plans for it.

Nor is he so frightened of the great transition that will come when the Crown Prince (left) assumes his royal duties. The royal duties themselves are time consuming, especially for one who has so many other interests to take up his time, especially abroad. His royal sisters each have a constituency to help fill the vacuum that will be left when the present king is here no longer.

Thaksin, in this narrative, being an astute businessman, can be persuaded to stay out of harms way and! the kin gdoms.

Its of course essential that whatever government comes to power in the elections with the blessing, of course, of the army and its powerful commander tends to the needs of those whove worn red: more development funds for the poor areas especially in the northeast, better educational opportunities, the usual list. According to one columnist, the Red Shirt attitude is now to tell their billionaire boss to please butt out, just give us your money, not your pearls of wisdom. Keep shut, will you?

That should be good news for the prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva,(below right) but he has, not surprisingly, proved disappointing. He loves the politics of his job, but hes there on sufferance of the army, and unlike Surakiart, isnt a heavyweight. His programmes for alleviating the acute economic problems in the kingdom just havent gained traction.

The kingdom has always had a genius for letting a heavyweight emerge when really needed; one thinks of General Chatichai Choonhavan, who guided Thailand through tumultuous years of rapid economic growth two decades ago. Everyone is wondering who the new heavyweight will be.

But elections there will be. Factions are manoeuvring in age-old style, and politicians are changing sides one suspects for more reasons than small change.

The Thai are very prone to self-criticism. But for all that has happened here since the economic crisis, from the serious illness of the revered king, the domestic fracas between red and yellow shirts, to the bloody crises on two borders, Thailand isnt doing all that bad.

Im not sure how many times Ive visited or lived here in the past 42 years, but as always, Id invest heavily in the kingdom if I could.

The writer is emeritus professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts! Univers ity, the United States