The Situation in Myanmar is not without Hope

November 29, 2011

www.nst.com.my

The Situation in Myanmar is not without Hope, says Deva Ridzam

"ASEAN must pursue realistic goals with patience as well as perseverance, Myanmar can have a stable central government to hold the country together to ensure the overall development of the country. The decision to allow Myanmar to chair the regional grouping in 2014 is a far-sighted move by ASEAN".–Ridzam

MYANMAR'S woes all these years have been a classic case of the leadership there being unable or unwilling to get its politics and economics right. Successive leaders, since 1962, never allowed parliamentary democracy envisioned by independence leader General Aung San to evolve and take root.

And in the context of both its own history and in terms of a politically evolving Southeast Asia, even the exercise of a flawed "democratic process" currently under way in Myanmar is better than what existed there until a few months ago.

Every member state of ASEAN must manage its socio-political and economic transition at its own pace. And this is what Myanmar's new nominally civilian government seems to be attempting to do. Hopefully, its new constitution can provide the basis for a shift from authoritarianism towards a democratic path.

The junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), virtually gave up on ASEAN when it was forced to relinquish its chairmanship in 2006. The SPDC viewed it as an affront to Myanmar's integrity. It created an atmosphere of distrust and suspicion of the regional bloc.

Asean's so-called policy of "constructive engagement" failed miserably to start a dialogue with the junta. Hence, there was little understanding of the problems facing the generals there and the country.

Some ASEAN countries, while continuing their own business and other interests in Myanmar, tried to deflect lack of success by asking China and India to "exert influence" on the junta.

But these two neighbours of Myanmar also have their own national interests there. ASEAN and its partners should instead work on the basis of the junta's seven-step plan.

The situation in Myanmar is not hopeless. Change there is inevitable sooner or later. Senior Gen Than Shwe is 74 years old. The generals seem to accept the reality that the entire country may not survive for long under intense domestic (monks, students and insurgencies) and international pressure.

The generals seem keen to move towards some sort of a "guided democratic" path, that is "soft authoritarianism" and may even find some sort of accommodation with the Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, whose party applied to re-register last week.

It would be wrong to view Myanmar solely through the lens of human rights and democracy or, for that matter, through any particular narrow perspective. More importantly, it is about "peaceful transition through national reconciliation", which is key to solving their problems.

The point is to get all parties, especially the minorities, representing a third of the population, to talk together and explore common interests. Therefore, relying on Suu Kyi alone and ignoring realities on the ground could lead to a Yugoslavia-type situation of civil war in Southeast Asia.

The international community should look to the future, nudge the generals towards greater flexibility, less negativity towards national reconciliation, better autonomy deals with insurgent groups as well as some arrangements with Suu Kyi.

Instead of imposing external standards of democracy, the international community ought to be thinking in terms of transition from the present situation towards a "democratic path", one that could lead to power sharing, multiparty elections and pluralistic democracy in the long term, with emphasis on capacity building and governance.

ASEAN should also encourage the generals to focus on the economy (investments to create jobs) as well as foster social cohesion, including social programmes relating to health and education, along with physical infrastructure. These are areas where the international community can and must help.

The evolving situation in Myanmar offers ASEAN and its dialogue partners a unique opportunity to allow the junta and all the other local parties to work out their own solution without outside interference or pressure.

ASEAN must pursue realistic goals and with patience as well as perseverance, Myanmar can have a stable central government to hold the country together to ensure the overall development of the country. The decision to allow Myanmar to chair the regional grouping in 2014 is a far-sighted move by ASEAN.