Perilous in Perak

Perak has 24 parliamentary seats. In 2008, BN won 13 of those seats. Most of them were won on the slimmest of margins. So the argument goes, the opposition also won on slim margins. The counter argument is, the victory by the opposition was won on the courage of convictions while the victory of BN was won as a result of the erosion of confidence. These are 2 different things. One won as a result of convictions is hard to slip back while the one won as a result of erosion of convictions is extremely difficult to sustain.

	PARLIAMENTARY SEAT	2008 SUPPORT FOR PAKATAN (%)	GE13 PROJECTED SUPPORT FOR PAKATAN (%)	EXPECTED WINNER
1	GERIK	34	41	BN
2	LENGGONG	35	42	BN
3	LARUT	46	53	PR
4	PARIT BUNTAR	60	67	PR
5	BAGAN SERAI	53	60	PR
6	BUKIT GANTANG	50	56	PR
7	TAIPING	60	65	PR
8	PADANG RENGAS	44	52	PR
9	SUNGAI SIPUT	50	55	PR
10	TAMBUN	44	52	PR
11	IPOH TIMUR	69	75	PR
12	IPOH BARAT	65	72	PR
13	BATU GAJAH	71	75	PR
14	KUALA KANGSAR	45	51	PR
15	BERUAS	52	59	PR
16	PARIT	42	49	PR
17	KAMPAR	45	52	PR
18	GOPENG	56	62	PR
19	TAPAH	42	49	PR
20	PASIR SALAK	44	51	PR
21	LUMUT	45	53	PR
22	BAGAN DATOK	43	51	PR
23	TELOK INTAN	50	55	PR
24	TANJUNG MALIM	41	48	PR

Will the people of Perak forget that during the reign of Zamri, he has given out more land than Nizar did when the latter was MB? Many landless people who were without land titles and who have worked the land got it during Nizar's stint as MB. What wasn't told was that more Malays got their titles too during Nizar's time.

During UMNO's time the grant of land was the hijacked prerogative of UMNO divisional heads, UMNO reps and merciless Pengerusi JKKK. During Zamri's time, more land was given to companies and cronies rather than people.

The people of Perak have never forgiven the manner in which a government of their choice has been usurped by UMNO though extra legal means. Whatever the court says, the general perception was, their government of choice was snatched away from them by dirty means.

The people of Perak are not oblivious to the rampant corruption of BN leaders. The laundry list of corruption is too long to be repeated here and indeed much has been revealed in the alternative media.

Will the Perak people be swayed with the oft repeated argument that, if PR takes over they will do the same things like what UMNO/BN does?

If UMNO assumes this, they must be thinking that Perak people are dullards and impervious to the injustices and corruption. UMNO assumes others are like them who are motivated by predatory instincts. No one can do any worse than UMNO does.

People can see that every Pakatan administration has scored better than all other BN administrations on almost every measure. Balancing the budget, achieving budget surpluses, increasing state revenues, carrying out people friendly programs. They do, while UMNO talks and talks. Doing and talking BS are like sky and earth.

With an allowance of 5% regain by UMNO and BN, PR should still have 7% reserve to win all but 2 of the parliamentary seats in Perak.

The possible outcome at GE13 after discounting 5% in favor of UMNO/BN as a results of deception, corruption, cheating etc.

	SEAT	3% SWING		7% SWING
		BN	PR	BN	PR
1	GERIK	1	0	1	0
2	LENGGONG	1	0	1	0
3	LARUT	0	1	0	1
4	PARIT BUNTAR	1	0	0	1
5	BAGAN SERAI	1	0	0	1
6	BUKIT GANTANG	0	1	0	1
7	TAIPING	0	1	0	1
8	PADANG RENGAS	1	0	0	1
9	SUNGAI SIPUT	0	1	0	1
10	TAMBUN	1	0	0	1
11	IPOH TIMUR	0	1	0	1
12	IPOH BARAT	0	1	0	1
13	BATU GAJAH	0	1	0	1
14	KUALA KANGSAR	0	1	0	1
15	BERUAS	0	1	0	1
16	PARIT	1	0	0	1
17	KAMPAR	0	1	0	1
18	GOPENG	0	1	0	1
19	TAPAH	0	1	0	1
20	PASIR SALAK	0	1	0	1
21	LUMUT	0	1	0	1
22	BAGAN DATOK	1	0	0	1
23	TELOK INTAN	0	1	0	1
24	TANJUNG MALIM	1	0	0	1
	TOTAL	9	15	2	22

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